Horror


Recently a major economics paper was found to contain basic excel errors, among other problems, and an amusing storm of controversy is growing around the paper. The controversy arises because the paper was apparently quite influential in promoting the most recent round of austerity politics in the western world, and the authors themselves used it actively in this way. The authors even managed to find a magic number – 90% – at which government debt (as a proportion of GDP) throttles growth, a threshold that many small government activists and “sustainable deficit” types have been seeking for years. It’s like manna from heaven!

There’s been a lot of hilarity arising from this, about how woeful the economics field is and about how vulnerable policy-makers on crucial issues like government spending can be to even quite terrible research that supports their agenda. But there has also been some criticism on statistics and academic blogs about the use of excel for advanced analysis, and what a bad idea it is. Andrew Gelman has a thread debating how terrible excel is as a computational tool, and Crooked Timber has a post (with excellent graphic!) expressing incredulity that anyone would do advanced stats in excel. While I agree in general, I feel an urgent need to jump to the defense of MS Excel.

MS Excel is great. It’s much, much more convenient than a calculator, and it can be used to do quite complex calculations (as in sums and multiplications) in multiple directions that would take ages on a calculator. On most computers now the calculator is buried or, if you’re a windows user, crap, and if you need anything more than addition it’s much more convenient to drag out excel. Sure it takes a moment to load compared to your calculator function, but it is so much easier to compare numbers, to calculate exponents and logs, and to present simple results in excel than in a calculator. As a simple case in point: if you get regression coefficients from Stata you can copy and paste them into excel and exponentiate to get relative risks, etc.; then you copy the formulas below, run a new regression model (with, e.g. random effects that weren’t in the previous one) and paste the results to enable you to compare between models quickly and easily. Similarly, if you’re checking a paper to see if they calculated odds ratios or relative risks, you can chuck those numbers into excel and do the comparisons with the contingency table right there in front of you. It offers a simple, graphically convenient way to visualize numbers. This is especially useful when the task you’re approaching is conceptually very simple (like a contingency table) but takes a bit of time to do on a hand calculator, and takes a bit of time to convert to the file formats required in Stata or R. In the time it takes me to think about how to structure the problem, input four lines of data to R, and then write the code to calculate the odds ratios, I can do the whole thing in excel, have the contingency table in front of me to check I’ve made no transcription errors from the paper, and fiddle quickly with changing numbers.

If you’re doing cost-effectiveness analysis in TreeAge (shudder) or R, excel is a really useful tool both for outputting results to something that is vaguely attractive to use, and for doing ballpark calculations to check that your models are behaving reasonably. This is especially useful if you’re doing stochastic Markov models, that can take hours or days to run in TreeAge, because you can’t trust software like that to give you the correct answer if you try to treat your stochastic model as a simple decision tree (because of the way that TreeAge faffs around with probability distributions, which is non-intuitive). Make a few simple assumptions, and you can do approximate calculations yourself in excel, and fiddle with key numbers – cohort size or a few different parameters – and see what effect they have.

Recently I was helping someone with survival analysis and she was concerned that her definition of time to drop out was affecting her results. She conducted a sensitivity analysis in Stata to see what effect it was having, and although with correct programming she could have produced all the material she needed in Stata, the time it takes to do this and debug your code can be time-consuming if you aren’t a natural. It’s much easier with modern machines to just run the regression 10 times with different values of drop-out time and plot the output hazard ratios in excel.

So, I think excel is a very useful tool for advanced modeling, precisely because of its ease of use and its natural, intuitive feel – the properties that recent excel bashers claim make it such a terrible device. While I definitely think it should not be used for advanced models themselves, I find it a hugely valuable addition to the model-building process. Reproducible code and standardized tools are essential for publishable work, but unless you are one of those people who never does any fiddling in the background to work out what’s going on in your model, excel will turn out to be your go-to tool for a wide range of support tasks.

In any case, the bigger problem with Rogoff and Reinhart’s work was not the excel error. Even if they had got the excel code right, their results would still have been wrong because their modeling method was absolutely appalling, and should never have seen the light of day, even at a conference. The main flaws in their work were twofold:

  • They binned years together, essentially giving different years different weights in the final model
  • They stripped the years out of their time series context, so crucial information contained in the time ordering of deficits and growth was lost

I think the second flaw is the most specifically terrible. By using this method they essentially guaranteed that they would be unable to show that Keynesian policies work, and they stripped the cause-effect relationship from all data collected in the Keynesian era (which lasted from the start of their data series to about 1970). In the Keynesian era, we would expect to see a sequence in which deficit increases follow negative growth, so unless the negative growth periods are very short and random, Reinhart and Rogoff’s method guarantees that this looks like an association between negative growth and higher deficits. If Keynesian policies actually work, then we would subsequently see an increase in growth and a reduction in deficits – something that by design in Reinhart and Rogoff’s model would be used to drive the conclusion that higher debt causes lower growth.

In short, no matter what package they used, and no matter how sophisticated and reproducible their methods, Reinhart and Rogoff’s study was designed[1] to show the effect it did. The correct way to analyze this data was through the presentation of time series data, probably analyzing using generalized least squares with a random effect for country, or something similar. Using annual data I think it would probably be impossible to show the relationship between debt and growth clearly, because recessions can happen within a year. But you could probably achieve better, more robust results in excel using proper time series data than you could get in R from Reinhart and Rogoff’s original method.

The problem here was the operator, not the machine – something which should always be remembered in statistics!

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fn1: I use the term “was designed” here without any intention to imply malfeasance on the part of the authors. It’s a passive “was designed”.

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A Facebook campaign running in England at the moment is driving the song Ding, Dong the Witch is Dead up the charts, in celebration of Margaret Thatcher’s death. This has the right-wing media up in arms, and has led to an open case of attempted censorship of the BBC. But old school role-players should also be up in arms with outrage at this attack on the legacy of the ’80s: although Margaret Thatcher is clearly a spellcaster of some kind, the Witch was not an authorized character class in the 1980s role-playing canon! Nothing is more frustrating than to see important aspects of the original system mis-used in the popular press, and so in the interests of accuracy, I think we should tackle the question of what kind of spellcaster Margaret Thatcher actually was. Being an ’80s phenomenon, Margaret Thatcher has to be fitted into the character class options of the old school canon: that is, she has to be either a magic-user, druid, cleric, paladin or ranger.

First of all, we know that “the lady’s not for turning,” so she can’t be a cleric or paladin. She doesn’t seem to have been very out-doorsy, and I think it’s safe to say she wasn’t true neutral, so druid is out. And by examining her history of spell-casting, we can rule out ranger.

So what spells did Maggie cast? First and most obvious is Mass Hypnosis, a fairly high level spell. Many northern newspapers claim that she destroyed whole areas of industry in the north, so maybe she could cast Earthquake as well. Along with Ronald Reagan (who was surely a Paladin!) she could use Detect Evil – before they joined to cast that spell, no one (no one!) knew that the Soviet Union was an evil dictatorship. It’s also fairly clear that she regularly used the Domination spell on members of her cabinet, and her resistance to assassination attempts suggests the use of Contingency and possibly also Resist Fire. From this list we can see that she had access to spells that were outside the ranger list. Thus we can conclude that she must have been a magic-user.

Finally, however, there is one additional power she had that suggests the ’80s was being run as a house-ruled boutique campaign. Many editorialists are claiming that Margaret Thatcher created Tony Blair; but Tony Blair is clearly a Vampire, and as far as I know there is no spell that can be used to create Vampires. So either she was so powerful that the GM had to create a whole new set of spells for her, 1980s Britain was being run based on an obscure supplement of Dragon magazine, or the entire industrial and economic wasteland that was the UK from 1978 to 1990 was being run on a unique set of house rules.

So, based on the available evidence, Margaret Thatcher was an extremely high level magic-user character being run in a homebrew post-apocalyptic UK campaign. And definitely not a witch.

Falconfox often begs tobacco off of strangers...

Falconfox often begs tobacco off of strangers…

When we left our heroes, they had just entered combat with the Cavalcade of Ruin. They were joined almost immediately  by a dwarf of dubious intent, Colonel Cornelius Lodestone XIX of the Glass Hills (15th Assistant to the Grand Artificer) (2nd Class Airship Pilot in His Majesty’s Royal Air Corps, Group 5, Wyvern Squadron, Azure Wing) (Field Agent 85A , Hazardous Delvings Department, Section 6)… Colonel Falconfox to his friends … This short and generally not very useful man appeared at the window of the Healer’s Hospice almost as soon as battle was joined, firing his loud but largely useless black powder pistols into the fray. Fortunately the party had another, much more effective dwarf to aid them, the indomitable Azahi the Trollslayer, and though the battle was tough they ultimately prevailed.

The battle was a raucous affair. Azahi took the Plaguebearer – the great, fat, rotting ogrish figure – front and centre, and while he slugged it out with this ham-fisted and abhorrent creature the elven Scout, Laren, and the wizard attempted to deal with the Chaos sorcerer and his marauders. This didn’t work out so well for the party: Laren found herself inflicted with three diseases, and the wizard suffered two diseases before he was knocked unconscious under a bevy of critical injuries. Laren the elf managed to distract the Chaos sorcerer’s Nurglings from battle through judicious application of a well-cooked kidney pie, freeing her up to concentrate on the sorcerer himself. The initiate attempted to aid Azahi to little avail, but finally Azahi crushed the Plaguebearer and they managed to overcome the sorcerer. The surviving Chaos marauder fled, but was cut down by the newcomer Dwarf; and after a few minutes of chaos and slimy, bloody confusion the party managed to destroy the Nurglings. The poxy cavalcade threatening Separation City had been vanquished!

Though they were largely too sick to stay upright for long, the party searched the bodies of their foes. They discovered nothing of value, but they did discover a large object wrapped in cloth. Upon unwrapping it, they found that the cavalcade had brought with them to the healer’s hospice the body of a mutant. Though they couldn’t be sure, their suspicion was that the cavalcade of Ruin intended to install the mutant in the empty hospice, so as to imply that the Healers had been attempting to cure a mutant. Throughout the Steamlands, mutants are killed on sight, being servants of Chaos; but there are rumours – never confirmed – that some healers are so zealous in their pursuit of Shallya’s mercy that they will even try to heal mutants. By placing the corpse in the Healer’s hospice, the cavalcade of Nurgle would have been able to discredit Separation City’s healers and give strength to an old rumour. This would have guaranteed that the town’s healers were burnt at the stake, and freed up the town for the forces of Nurgle to infest. Fortunately, our heroes had defeated this nefarious plot.

They searched the cavalcade’s caravan and captured their remaining servants, but got nothing useful except more diseases. Finally, exhausted and afflicted, the party returned to their tavern and collapsed in a pox-ridden heap, to await the accolades they deserved – and some healing.

The healers returned after two days, and the party received all the healing they needed; but with the healers came Madam von Jungfreud, who after some perfunctory apologies for her mistakes demanded that the PCs should head off into the wilderness to find the leader of the cult of Nurgle, and destroy it. Our heroes, being in possession of certain letters to the doctor, were fairly sure that the leader of the cult was not located anywhere near Separation City. However, they realized that the plague afflicting the lands around Separation City must have some cause, so they set off the following day to find – and destroy – whatever outpost of Nurgle had afflicted the lands west of Separation City.

On the evening of the first day of walking, the party came to Monkey Mountain. This mountain holds a community of creatures somewhat like primitive humans, who cannot speak any language humans know but are peacable enough to be able to communicate and trade with local farmers. When our heroes reached it they soon found themselves accosted by an enraged Monkey Man, who was clearly also very, very sick. The Initiate calmed the Monkey Man by gestured signals indicating he could help, and the Monkey Man led them to his community on Monkey Mountain.

Sadly, the Monkey Man’s tribe were dead – all but about 10 of them. They had died of some kind of plague. Familiar by now with the machinations of the cult of Nurgle, the party soon found a bag of pus secreted at the source of the Monkey Mountain’s streams, and identified here the cause of the clan’s disease. Noting also a pile of goods obtained from recent trade with the nearby farmers, they guessed that the Monkey Men had been used as the locus of disease throughout the area. Though subsequently the party found other streams with the same contamination, it was obvious that the Monkey Men had been infected en masse as a source of disease for the farmers in the area. The Initiate identified that the disease disseminated here was ghoulpox, and since the party had cures for the ghoulpox, obtained from the doctor in Separation City, they were soon able to cure the few surviving Monkey Men. This cure, unfortunately, renders its victims suggestible; so when they left the Mountain the party had secured themselves a force of 11 loyal Monkey Man followers …

They passed on through the ravaged farmlands west of Separation City. For two days, they found nothing but occasional sources of infection, but in the evening of the second day they stumbled upon something new …

By now they had passed beyond the farmland around Separation City and were passing though typical highland forest: silent stands of eucalyptus forest, eerily silent but for the occasional lone cry of unnamed birds. Near evening, they heard a new and strange sound over the silence of the forest, like a huge swarm of insects; and over the subtle lemonbalm scent of eucalypts came the strong stench of ordure, as if they were nearing a military encampment. Thinking they might have stumbled on the military mission that left Separation City a few weeks earlier, they headed to the source of the smell …

… and found a horrific site. They entered a small clearing, at the centre of which was an onsen of medium warmth. Floating in the middle of the onsen was a strange construction, consisting of two canoes, one upturned over the other and the pair locked together. Trapped within them was the body of a man, and about him thronged a huge horde of stinging, biting and parasitic insects. They had stumbled on a scaphism – someone was being tortured by means of the boats. Drawing the boats into the edge of the onsen, the PCs were assailed by a terrible smell. The wizard used his spell The Howler Wind to disperse the insects, revealing beneath a sight to horrify even a Dwarven graverobber such as Colonel Falconfox: beneath the cowl of insects was Separation City’s priest of Sigmar, reduced to a moaning and suppurating mess, all his skin punctured and ruined by insects. Worms swam in his eyes, and ran down the streaks of vomit that smeared his cheeks; the stench that came off him was horrific to mortal men, and his arms pulsated with larvae and grubs soon to hatch. He had been tortured most foully, and his last delerious days were upon him.

The priest opened his cracked lips to reveal a swollen, insect-infested tongue. He begged the party not to kill him, and told them that every morning at dawn two cultists came to his pool, and these two cultists had a key to the tower. The PCs saw their chance: they set the priest adrift on the water again, and laid a trap for the cultists.

The following morning two cultists came to the water, and were duly caught. Azahi, showing no patience with them, dragged one down to the water. He drew in the boat, smothered the priest to death against his (feeble, human) will, and tore him from the boats. Then he picked up the cultist and told him, “you go in the boats, or you die quickly.”

These cultists were no fools – they knew that when caught, a cultist of Nurgle can choose only the manner, not the fact of their demise. This one quickly sprang to his own defense, and offered to tell the PCs all they needed to know.

The other one went in the boats.

The PCs then headed up the hill in the direction the cultists had come, soon finding themselves facing a small tower. The graverobber approached under stealth but was seen and attacked by a wizard in the tower. The elf and the wizard approached the tower disguised as cultists, and were hailed as friends with the warning “rush to the door, someone waits to ambush you.” This they did, but the wizard’s ice spell failed and their plans to invade the lower room quickly were ruined. Nonetheless, they soon bested the guards at the lower level of the tower. They then spent several minutes faffing around casting various spells while they tried to discern magically whether there was a trapdoor in through the roof; finally, learning there was, the elf and the initiate began climbing the outside of the tower. Once they were well on their way, the remaining residents of the higher regions of the tower charged down to attack the remnants of the party: Azahi the trollslayer, Captain Falconfox and the wizard found themselves fighting three plague-zombies, a shaman and a powerful wizard. This latter was the Plague Captain: a chap in a suit bearing a pipe, who surrounded himself in evil magics and attempted to cripple his enemies with disease and corruption.

After a brief and brutal battle our heroes won the day, and finally the disease cult were eliminated. Searching the tower, they found a map of a part of the catacombs beneath the town of Store, and a key – evidence, perhaps, that they could use to pursue the ultimate leader of this cult of horrors. It was clear that they had not captured the final leader of this branch of Nurgle’s cult, but they had saved Separation City from a host of terrors, and found clues as to the ultimate leadership of this cult.

Satisfied, they returned to Separation City. Would they pursue a crusade against the cult of Nurgle, or return to their onsen to enjoy a quiet life? Only time will tell …

Advanced studies at the Miskatonic University...

Advanced studies at the Miskatonic University…

This being a report on a Call of Cthulhu session I played in on 2nd March, in the style of the times.

In the decade since our return from the war, Mr. Ambrose and I have had our difficulties, but life had settled into a pleasant flow here in New Orleans, until we were thrown into the strange affair of the cannibal baby factory, and our eyes began to open to the dark secrets lurking beneath the veneer of American life.

Our story began one lazy Sunday afternoon, as we sat on the balcony of the pleasant New Orleans home we had been sharing this past year. Bourbons and cigarillos in hand, we had just swung into reminiscence about the hard times that beset us after our return from the trenches – hard times that were a far cry from our recent good fortune. Just a year earlier I had finally been able to open my own medical practice just off of Canal Street, and though business was still slow, for the first time in years it appeared that I had a future. Of course matters were still more complex for Mr. Ambrose, who had shared my good fortune during the war and had witnessed the full horrors of trench warfare as a participant, rather than a sawbones, and who was having trouble settling into a steady civilian life even now. Nonetheless, things were looking up on that peaceful Sunday afternoon as we sat on our verandah, lazily discussing troubles that once held our lives in such a pinch, but now seemed just vaguely amusing from the perspective of a little distance, and a little whisky. Oh, to think now that we could have been so pained by the troubles of the mortal flesh – as if such concerns as addiction, poverty and strife could hold any real terror, when compared to what we were about to discover in our neighbour’s basement …

For it was at that moment, as we embarked upon our second glasses of bourbon, that our neighbour came home. Our neighbour Mr. Corbett – good, upstanding citizen, semi-retired from his shipping business, who still attended his warehouse three days a week, whiled away most middays at a well-respected gentleman’s club in the centre of town, and commuted regularly to New York – New York! – in pursuit of his extensive business interests. A man of such wealth and respectability that he owned his own Model T Ford, and a house across the way from our somewhat ramshackle bachelor’s pad, where he enjoyed extensive grounds and even a separate garage for his car.  There he was now, as the Bourbon warmed my palate, struggling up the pathway to his front door with two packages in his arms – one round like a bowling ball, the other roughly the length of a folded billiard cue, both wrapped in butcher’s paper. He seemed to struggle with them, and as he attempted to open his front door he dropped one on the porch. Then, the strangest thing: he looked all about him most furtively, as if caught in the act of smuggling something illegal through his own front door, snatched up the parcel as if it were contraband of some kind, and slipped inside his house most surrepititously.

Perhaps his act would have been dismissed as merely a whiskey-induced vision, and forgotten as a lazy Sunday afternoon’s fancy, were it not for the strange events that followed. When we were perhaps some distance into our third or fourth slugs of that fine Bourbon, lights came on in Mr. Corbett’s basement.  We would not even have noted this, but that the light we could see through his basement window grew brighter and brighter, till it was fit to dazzle us; and then, with a distinct popping sound as of electrical shorting, suddenly went dark. Upon first seeing that light, I had remarked to Mr. Ambrose that perhaps Mr. Corbett were in possession of a subterranean billiards room; however, that bright light spoke more of a workshop or laboratory.

This, too, would have passed unremarked, but for the later events of the evening. I had just laid myself down to sleep, having finished another chapter of Fishbein’s New Medical Follies (that pertaining to Eclecticism, I believe) when I was struck by the fancy that I could hear a low moaning, crying sound coming from across the road. I initially discounted it as some old tinnitus, but in truth that tinnitus was only ever psychosomatic and is long cured; and certainly though he bears many ills from the war, Mr. Ambrose has no hearing difficulties, and he had not only heard it but was up and about, trying to fathom it. I joined him and we returned to the verandah, there to listen more closely. It was a strange sound, in some regards like a baby’s crying, but in others like that of an animal or some swamp beast; a kind of gurgling, unpleasant choking sound, interspersed with sloppy gusts of breath and low wails. It was obviously muffled from within Mr. Corbett’s basement and insufficient to wake the neighbours, but it set me to shivering and nervousness such as I have not experienced for years, and perhaps Mr. Ambrose too. For it resembled a sound we had not heard in 10 years, and which the last time we heard it we discounted as merely the horrific vapours of wartime: sometimes, lying in the trenches at night after one of those reckless charges that left so many dead on the battlefield, after the last cries of the dying had subsided, we would hear that same sound, as of some wild beast that prowled the no-man’s land and perhaps feasted on the dead and dying. And once, approaching the bins behind the field hospital where we would dump amputated limbs, I also thought I caught such a sound, though I never found its source. Both Mr. Ambrose and myself dismissed those mysterious and ugly tones at the time as mere trench-madness; yet here it was, clearly emanating from our ageing neighbours basement.

We must, perforce, investigate. Dressing hastily, we marched across the road to Mr. Corbett’s front door. After a brief listen to confirm it was indeed his basement from which the wails and slurps arose, we knocked upon his door. After a considerable delay he answered, wearing that same furtive expression as crossed his face during the incident of the dropped package. I proceeded to make a noise complaint, and to ask him to still “whatever wild animal he was keeping in his basement.” He looked most alarmed at our having caught his game, and immediately tried to mollify us, also promising to still the beast at once. By now my curiosity was piqued, and placing a foot surreptitiously in the door to stop its closing, I offered to accompany him down to his beast, observing that he was old and perhaps not well, and might prefer to be accompanied by two men in the prime of life, lest there be some accident? He declined firmly, and begged of us to wait outside his door – all the while pushing the door against my foot as if to close me out, the scoundrel! I assured him we would wait, and that it were better he left the door open lest there be trouble. Being unable to close the door against me, he finally agreed, and off he went to still his beast. Listening at the door and window, we could faintly hear him talking to the mewling animal, saying to it “hush now!” and “be still, it’s okay!” and other phrases as if he were speaking to a baby, rather than a beast! Whatever he kept down there went silent, and he soon returned, looking even more furtive, and bid us please be gone. After we left him, assuring him we would assist him with his beast were he to need us, we heard the sound of several locks being turned in his front door. Why such security, in peaceful New Orleans?

The next morning we determined to break into his house and see what manner of beast he kept. We convinced ourselves that we did so only out of civic duty, but I think we both felt something was wrong, and needs must assure ourselves that some primeval fear waking in us were unjustified. Oh, had we only had the lack of imagination necessary to assure ourselves it were but a wild beast, and to return to our normal daily routine, we would never be troubled by those horrors such as subsequently have haunted us daily.

While I did my morning at the surgery Mr. Ambrose sought out and purchased the services of a Mr. Boleyn, a feckless and worthless man who spent some time in the trenches with us, and proved himself good for little but causing trouble. One line of trouble he was very good at was breaking into our Colonel’s whiskey safe, and it was the employ of these skills that we engaged for $15 and the promise of a bottle of good tequila. We met him on Mr. Corbett’s verandah at midday, and once he had us through that multi-locked door we bid him wait in the hallway, both to watch the door and to assist us were we to run into further barriers. We then proceeded into Mr. Corbett’s basement, me carrying that bottle of tequila as insurance against Mr. Boleyn’s services and Mr. Ambrose carrying his service revolver.

The basement was surprisingly spacious, consisting of a hallway with two doors on each side, all closed. We followed the traditional process for room clearing that we learnt in darker times, moving anti-clockwise down the hall, and so opened the first door on our right, entering the strangest room we have ever been in, and the first room to ever test our sanity. Before us lay an ordinary nursery, in which were a normal cupboard, a cot, a rocking horse, and over the cot a mobile of little winged angels. From within the cot came the sound of a baby sleeping gently, and the entire room was rich with the smell of formaldehyde. One door led out of the room, though we did not immediately notice it. We approached the cot to view Mr. Corbett’s basement-dwelling baby, thinking perhaps here was the source of last night’s sounds, and before we had time to prepare ourselves we found ourselves facing the most terrible of sights.

The cot did indeed hold a baby, but it was a monstrous construction, a baby with six arms, and all the parts of its body stitched together from what were obviously the discarded remains of other bodies. The arms were of mismatched sizes and colours, unmatched either with his legs; I say that it was a “he,” but that part most necessary to designate gender was not attached; and I swear his ears must have been procured from a girl, though I had no way to prove it. This monstrous frankenstein baby was also the source of that formaldehyde smell – for the body parts from which it had been made were obviously once pickled.

Both Mr. Ambrose and I would have loved to have dismissed this beast as some kind of grotesque doll, constructed for god knows what reason by Mr. Corbett. We knew he had lost his own son and wife, so perchance he was in the midst of some mad delirium, constructing a family life for himself out of the dregs of others; but at this point something so alarming, so horrific, happened that we would never again be able to look upon the macabre and seek easy or dismissive answers for it in the pscyhology of others. For as we stood looking into the cot, the dead eyes opened – and the baby started to scream. The eyes were the most chilling of all for me, because they had obviously been procured from different people. One was blue and slightly rheumy with early cataracts, as if snatched from a middle-aged diabetic; the other was, I am sure, taken from an Oriental of some kind, dark brown and almond shaped and much younger. As if the horror of this were not enough, though clearly the baby could see us and was responding to our presence, those eyes retained the glassy stare of the dead, a look we had both seen many times – but never thought to see mobile and directed at us!!!

We stepped back from the cot in disgust, and it was then that the baby sprang from the cot, hitting me in the face and proceeding to grab on to me with all six arms, bearing down on me with superhuman strength as it chewed at my face. The pain was abominable, as was the stench of mild rot and formaldehyde given off by this grotesque beast. I fear we both panicked, for I have a memory of punching myself in the face and screaming at Mr. Ambrose to get it off me! But after some moments we managed to drag it from my face, and Mr. Ambrose was able to place the upturned cot over it, then putting the rocking horse onto the cot to ensure its immobility. We then squatted before the cot and looked at this beastly thing, as it stuck its fat little mismatched arms through the bars of the cot and hissed and spat at us. We looked into its dead eyes for just a few more seconds before, turning my back on it, I said to my colleague, “Mr. Ambrose, if you please…?” Understanding my intent immediately, he shot that abomination in the head, right between the eyes, and it fell bloodlessly to the ground, dead at last. Shaking and disturbed, we retreated from that room and closed the door fast, leaning against the wall in horror and disbelief. What had we witnessed in there? How could such a golem be made real? Our world had begun to turn …

Our interest, though, had begun to rise. We must find what horrid scheme Mr. Corbett was engaged in, we must end it, and we must confront him and, if necessary, end him too. We would explore the rest of the basement.

The next room proved to be a kind of study. Its walls were lined with bookshelves, and there was a desk with a journal upon it, and next to it a strange, irredescent metal box. The box held a strange allure for me, and without much thought I put it in my jacket pocket. The journal I read, and it told us what we needed to know: Mr. Corbett was engaged in some strange ritual of reanimation, which he believed connected to some ancient Indian god called Ramasekval, and he was obtaining body parts from a deluded religious nutcase called Tomas Zewski, clearly some communist Jewish Pole, who worked at the local hospital. Mr. Corbett was plying Zewski with drugs, and in exchange convincing him that he served some dark lord, and that this lord’s purpose was served by cannibalizing bodies at the hospital for body parts to be sent to Corbett. Such a repulsive scheme as I had never heard of before! Though I spent two years sawing off legs and arms in the trenches of the bloodiest war the world has ever seen, believing myself to be as close to hell as it is possible for living men to go, I now realize that I had only just begun to splash in the shallows of human depravity – and that beyond what I already knew and believed so foul, was an ocean of depravity so deep no one could ever know what horrors lay at its depths. I fear now I am beginning to see just how dark and evil a man’s soul can be, and it unnerves me.

The next room in the basement was confusingly normal: a laundry, full of drying baby clothes. We investigated, but found nothing of interest. At the far end of this room was a door, which we passed through into a machine room, stacked full of parts that had been stripped from various machines. In the corner was a massive generator, and many cans of petrol, that must clearly be used to power whatever light we had seen the night before. We left this room and returned to the hallway. There was one final room off the hallway that we had not looked into, and this we now entered, to find a small space cramped and full of jars and bottles. Many were empty, but some contained pickled body parts – heads, arms, legs. There was a strange picture on the wall at the end of the room, somewhat akin to Michelangelo’s man, but in an Indian style with many more arms and legs. We came close to this picture to investigate it, but it had a strange, unnatural aura that caused it to seem larger, as if it filled the room; strange sounds assailed our ears, and it were as if the painting had been painted on a canvas that was more complex and mathematical than real; only some part of it, wrongly folded, protruded into our own time and space, and looking upon it gave us a twisted and sick hint at those other places where its full form was stretched out. These bizarre contortions of reality sickened and terrified us, and for some minutes I passed out. I must confess that I soiled myself in my terror, and Mr. Ambrose had to drag me, twitching and frothing, from the room. When I came to he was cleaning me up in the laundry room. He had taken off my soiled jacket and trousers, and bid me wear replacements from amongst the stacked laundry of the room. I did, and did not notice at the time that in taking off my jacket he had also stolen from me that lustrous silver box.

So, we had found all but the room in which Mr. Corbett made his baby, and we knew this must be in the room beyond the macabre nursery we had first entered. We needed to return to it, but before we did, I had an idea. I poured the tequila away, and returning to the machine room filled it with petrol. I then stuffed it with a rag from the laundry, also well-soaked in petrol, and thus made a makeshift firebomb. Now we were ready for trouble. We passed back through the nursery, trying not to look at that horrid infant, and through the other door in that room. This took us, we were not surprised to find, into a dissection room filled with the equipment required to build a horrific golem of flesh. We searched it thoroughly but found nothing more to enlighten us. We did, however, find a trapdoor leading deeper into the basement, and were just beginning to look down into it, contemplating further exploration, when behind us we heard the sound of pattering feet, a grinding sound, and a crash. Dashing back into the nursery, we saw the cot had been overturned and the baby’s body was missing! It had somehow survived Mr. Ambrose’s perfect shot, and was now out somewhere in the basement.

We passed carefully out of the nursery and into the hallway, and yet still we could hear the sound of that baby’s feet, pattering around in the basement. Fearing it behind us, and wanting to calm our nerves, we ducked back into the room full of pickled body parts and slammed the door shut. I stood near the door, and Mr. Ambrose returned to look at the picture. As he did so, he suddenly disappeared! One moment he was there, and then he was gone! I was left alone in the room, with nothing but that maddening patter of baby feet, and the body parts. Somewhere behind me, an empty jar fell off of a shelf and smashed. I confess I panicked: I lit my petrol bomb, through it amongst the jars, and ran for the door. The bomb exploded, and up went the formaldehyde, creating in moments a conflagration I was sure would take that damned baby, and I dashed out of the room. Moments later though, leaning in the hallway, I heard Mr. Ambrose crying for help from inside! He had somehow reappeared in that inferno! I thew open the door, dragged him out, and slammed it shut again, then dragged him to the laundry to tend his wounds. He was badly burnt, though not in a life threatening way.

We now, however, had no time. The basement was beginning to burn, and upstairs we heard Mr. Corbett returning. We dashed up the stairs to find him standing ready to confront us, and outside a crowd gathering as the fire began to consume the house. Having no time to spare, I punched Mr. Corbett in the face, and bid Mr. Ambrose drag him outside. I dashed upstairs to his room, grabbed the only useful thing I could find – a pile of letters on his desk – and dashed out after Mr. Ambrose. Putting the doubts of the gathered crowd to rest with my doctor’s manner, we dragged Mr. Corbett’s limp body to my house to “tend” to him.

Once the crowd and the police were gone, and Mr. Corbett’s once-proud home nothing but smouldering ruin, we woke him and began to demand answers. He denied any knowledge of the doings in the basement, and professed to a singular terror at what we told him. We believed him innocent of the charges laid, though we could not think how such could be, and decided instead to investigate Mr. Zewski. It came as no surprise to me than elderly, respectable gentleman would not be the one most to blame for such evil deeds, when a Polish communist were also in the frame. It was time to visit with him, and to have words.

What horrors do they seek beneath these peaceful avenues?

What horrors do they seek beneath these peaceful avenues?

Our pursuit of Mr. Zewski came to nothing. He tried to escape us in a car, and we were forced to commandeer an ambulance, eventually driving him off the road and nearly killing him. Under duress he revealed himself to be exactly the dupe Mr. Corbett’s journal described him as; less a communist mastermind and more a foolish drug addict who believed himself a satanist, though he was a member of no covern. I patched him up as best I could and we drove him back to the hospital in the same ambulance. At the hospital I procured a few harmless injectable placebos such as we occasionally use on the worst of psychosomatics, and we returned to our house. I was now convinced that Mr. Corbett knew more than he was admitting to, and enacted a fiendish plan to get the truth. I injected him with one placebo and told him that it was a poison, and the only antidote was in my possession. Showing him another vial of a harmless placebo, I placed a bell in his bound hand, and told him he had three hours to tell us everything. Before we had even left the room, he was ringing that bell madly, desperate to tell us all. Yet still, when we interrogated him, he denied all knowledge of the doings in his basement. Exasperated, we left him to his imagined death, and decided there was only one thing left to do: before the police dug deep and discovered the body parts from the ruins of his house, we needed to enter that trapdoor.

We wasted no time, and kitting ourselves up with shotgun, pistol, rope and flashlight, we returned to Mr. Corbett’s ruined house. We re-entered the basement and, after digging away ash and rubble, opened the trapdoor. I went first while Mr. Ambrose covered me, and then he followed. We found ourselves in a narrow tunnel, that curved away and out of sight. Most perplexed, we followed it for some minutes. It descended a little and straightened, and we followed it for a few more minutes before encountering the most perplexing and disturbing of sights. Ahead of us the tunnel ended in a blank wall. In front of the wall were some dozens of the same homunculi we had seen in Mr. Corbett’s house, all constructed from discarded body parts, all of different sizes, though all vaguely human. They were digging frantically at the tunnel end, extending it through the earth, and as they dug they hurled the soil behind him. There, blocking a part of the tunnel, was a terrible ugly slug-like thing, larger than a man, that oozed along behind the monsters, eating the soil they threw away with a horrid slurping sound.

The creatures had not seen us, so busy were they at their digging, and we were in no way well-enough armed to best them. We were also deeply, profoundly disturbed by what we saw. We backed slowly away and then fled in terror back down the tunnel, reemerging in the basement as fast as we could. We slammed that trapdoor shut and ran back up into the light, shaking in terror. What were we to do?

Mr. Ambrose became then the most practical of men. He directed me to find a map and a hose. While I did so, he turned on the engine of Mr. Corbett’s car. The hose we snaked from the car’s exhaust pipe down to the trapdoor, where we fed it into that tunnel. We then sealed the trapdoor and returned to the surface to consult the map. Our guess was that those horrid cannibal babies were digging straight towards the centre of town, to an old statue that stood there. Perhaps there was something buried beneath that statue, something they sought, that we could dig up first?

So I must end this diary entry, for we rest now before approaching the resolution of these mysteries. Why did Mr. Ambrose disappear before that warped and mysterious picture, and what was its purpose? Was his strange disappearance linked to the lustrous silver box? How can Mr. Corbett not know what goes on beneath his own feet? And why does his legion of homunculi dig towards that statue? By what fiendish power does he animate those corpses? What secrets have we uncovered in New Orleans? I fear we are on the cusp of a great and terrible discovery, and that our lives will never be the same again …

Is it just me, or has the Guardian embarked on a project of excessive tastelessness[1]? In the last two days they have shown video footage of 17 people dying in a hot air balloon (apparently you can see people jumping to their deaths) and of a man being dragged to his death by a South African police van. WTF? I don’t want to watch people die. I was always of the understanding that snuff videos were an urban myth. Call me crazy, but I don’t think media outlets should be showing footage of real people dying. I don’t want my death to be on film, and I don’t want to watch you die. Maybe occasionally there is some social value to watching you die, but in general I think your death should be something kept between you, your family and your god or gods.

I remember years ago some stupid American politician shot himself in the face in front of the media, and pretty much every Australian TV station chose not to play it. I recall one station even had a statement about why they “censored” the sight of a man blowing his brains out. What has happened in the intervening years that grainy footage of some holiday-makers having an otherwise great day ruined by their horrible fiery deaths has become news? Why do I need to see some kid in South Africa being murdered?

I think I can chalk this up as another example of how journalists and the media generally are losing track of reality. But let me say this: to the best extent that I can, I will try to avoid watching you die. Obviously, some stupid media may trick me into watching their horrid snuff films, but if I have any say over the matter, I will not watch you die.

I’m sure that will make you feel better when you do.

fn1: Obviously for a lot of people this has been a rhetorical question for a very, very long time now.

The struggle for improved town planning laws continues unabated...

The struggle for improved town planning laws continues unabated…

Today’s Guardian is running an article about the controversy of renaming Volgograd to Stalingrad for the annual celebrations of that particularly brutal period in World War 2. If anyone hasn’t read Anthony Beevor’s book on this topic, I strongly recommend it – I don’t know how factual it is but it’s an excellent read anyway. Apparently, according to this article, the decision to rename Volgograd to Stalingrad for this few days of the year (covering the time when the Nazis surrendered) is controversial because it is seen as honouring Stalin, who was in charge at the time. From the article:

Communists and other hardliners credit him with leading the country to victory in the second world war and making it a nuclear superpower, while others condemn his purges, during which millions were murdered.

Stalin was definitely a bad, bad man, who did bad, bad things, and although some have argued that many of the bad things he did were necessary conditions to enable the rapid industrialization that gave the USSR the power to destroy Hitler, others would probably just as likely argue that his excesses reduced the USSR’s power to resist invasion. Beevor doesn’t make a judgment either way but certainly describes how Stalin’s behavior before the war and in the early stages of Operation Barbarossa made the Nazis’ job easier, but by contrast Aly and Heim in Architects of Annihilation argue, at least by implication, that Stalin’s programs of “de-kulakization” and industrialization – which were accompanied by famine, mass relocation and the destruction of whole communities – were essential to the later war effort and were actually copied by Hitler’s planners and demographers as they set about the extermination of the Jewish race and the residents of Eastern Europe. So in this sense it could be argued that Stalin’s specific pre-war policy framework[1] may have been an essential pre-condition to the victory in the war[2]. If so, it’s a very odious fact but it does suggest that Stalin’s role was essential to winning the war[3], as were the sacrifices of the 20 million or so people who died as a result of his policies.

Beevor on the other hand quotes a general speaking to Stalin early in the war, when Stalin was panicking. I can’t remember exactly the quote, of course, but basically the general told Stalin “It doesn’t really matter how tough they are or how badly we fare now; just pack up our industry to the other side of the Urals, and eventually we’ll destroy them.” A lesson they learnt, of course, from Napoleon, though they did have help from vampires back then.

So reading that article on the reveneration of Stalingrad’s name, and the dispute about how much Stalin needs to be tied to the victory over Nazism (and, by extension, its fascist satellites), or whether the Soviet Union (and Russia) was/is the kind of place where it doesn’t matter who is in charge, no one will ever be able to conquer it. I guess it won’t change anything about the current debate (after all, since when are these debates ever actually about historical facts?) but it’s an interesting question about Stalin’s legacy, since implicit in it is the suggestion that the only way Russia could have defeated the Nazis is by a massive program of industrialization that cannot possibly be achieved without mass suffering. If that’s the case, then it’s hard to believe that the first half of the 20th century could have followed any trajectory that would not have ended in mass suffering – at least not once WW1 was over. And if so, that really is a sad, sad state of human affairs, and points to something cruel and terrible in the heart of modernity.

fn1: it sounds so innocuous when put like that, doesn’t it?

fn2: not to mention the massive contribution of the USA under lend-lease from 1941-1945, something for Americans to throw back in the face of unsympathetic foreigners who tell them they didn’t win the war.

fn3: another side reason that he may have been essential was that Hitler was obssessed with capturing Stalingrad because of its name, and had the city been named Puppygrad he might have been a little less focused on squandering hundreds of thousands of well-trained troops on it.

Farmers near Separation City, before the plague

Farmers near Separation City, before the plague

When last we left our heroes, they had begun investigating the mysterious heresies being perpetrated by the Matriarch of Separation City. In this week’s session were the dwarven trollslayer, the human wizard, a human initiate in service to the war god Myrmidia, and the elven scout. Previously (though unreported here), the party had asked the healers they rescued to visit their onsen for a few days, to give healing to the guests there by way of repayment for having their lives saved. Let us assume that the coachman and roadwarden decided to accompany the healers back to the Onsen, and thus the party composition had changed.

The doctor’s hidden horrors

This session the group’s first task was to investigate the doctor. Given that the wizard, Sangar, was afflicted with a serious case of bog lice, and Aza’hi the dwarf had sustained a hideous injury that even the healers were unable to tend to, the natural way to investigate the doctor’s situation was simply to attend for a consultation. The PCs walked from Iron Ring to the settlement called Turtle River, a 30 minute stroll through rice paddies, orchards and the occasional stand of eucalypts, past the local temple of Sigmar. Passing the temple of Sigmar the PCs noticed it was strangely empty but for a small group of ragged-looking men and women who they subsequently discovered were refugees from farms to the west. They paid it little mind though, and marched straight into the doctor’s surgery for some medical care.

The doctor’s surgery consisted of a waiting room, a private office and the consulting room itself, and with the doctor currently seeing a patient only the receptionist was present. She bade them sit and then excused herself, explaining that she had to help the doctor with his tasks. While she was out of the room the wizard Sangar cast his newly learnt spell Whispering Wind, which he then sent wandering through the doctor’s private office looking for suspicious clues. He soon found that the doctor’s study contained a large table on which lay a partially dissected goblin corpse. The wind also warned him of a crate full of potions, and some kind of mysterious magical flask on a shelf. The group decided that while Aza’hi and the wizard were seeing the doctor, the elf Laren and the (as yet unnamed!) initiate would enter the study and investigate in more detail, guided by the remnants of the wizard’s whispering wind.

As soon as the two of them entered the study, they were struck by the horrors of the goblin’s corpse. In the gloomy half light of the office, with its partially severed head drawn back to stare blank-eyed at the door and its innards strung over a retort stand it was a truly hideous sight, even for those who knew what to expect. And the smell! So intense was the initiate’s shock at the sight of the corpse that he suffered immediate stress and began to shake. The elf, being typically unconcerned with the fate of lesser races, breezed on by and began investigating the corpse for clues. Between them they made short work of the room, and discovered:

  • A crate of metal vials, with a note indicating they had been delivered from Store to the Bloody Shower tavern in Separation City. A second note indicated that they were a cure for the ghoulpox, but advised the doctor not to treat lady von Jungfreud’s husband, and suggested that the potion would combine with her grief at the loss of her husband to make her more susceptible to suggestion. The note also told the doctor to suggest to von Jungfreud that she send the priests of Sigmar out to investigate an area west of Separation City that was suffering from the plague, and told the doctor that a messenger would come soon to give him the instructions for the next stage of the plan. This messenger would come disguised as a troupe of wandering performers, and he was to visit the troupe at midday to meet his contact once it had arrived. The letter was simply signed “F”
  • A single, strange flask, which contained a swirling green gas and was obviously dangerous. Subsequent investigation by the wizard revealed it would release a noxious cloud that could be used as a trap
  • Laren identified that the doctor had been experimenting on using the goblin’s brains as a breeding ground for ghoulpox[1]. Because elves mummify their dead, and all elves are taught the process when they are at school, Laren was an expert at removing brains through noses, and was able to draw the entire goblin brain out through the nose to take away for a sample[2]
  • A book entitled “The Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Justified Experiment and Research Kommission” dated for a 10 year period ending about 10 years ago, that was so rich with evil magic that the initiatie of Myrmidia refused to touch it[3]

Having grabbed this stuff (except the book), elf and human ducked out the back entrance to the study, and everyone met up a little way down the road. From there they returned to Iron Ring, carrying the letter that proved the doctor had allowed von Jungfreud’s husband to die, and that he was in league with a mysterious man called “F.” Judging by the simple of the black crescent moon engraved on the bottom of the bottles, “F” was from the distant Shadowlands, which have a bad reputation for evil magic throughout the Steamlands.

The doctor’s secret schemes

Given this, the PCs decided to confront the lady von Jungfreud with their knowledge, and convince her to allow the healers to return. This didn’t work out for them, and she had them kicked out before they could convince her, and refused to believe any stories about the doctor. They did discover that she, too, was taking some kind of medicine that the doctor had given her – possibly a medicine that was causing her to be sick. Laren the elf sneaked back into her house after they had gone and stole a bottle of this medicine, but when Sangar the wizard investigated it he determined that it was actually a potion for curing disease[4]. He promptly drank it, to cure his bog lice, and incurred another, mildly painful symptom as a result. Sangar, always a puny half-man, was beginning to become increasingly debilitated under the weight of his disease symptoms.

The PCs were now confident that the doctor was running a very evil plan in the town, which involved driving out all the major religious organizations and then engaging in some kind of final act of heinous viciousness when his messenger in the travelling cavalcade arrived. They were further sure that he was acting in league with a dark power from the Shadowlands. The time had come to act. They took rooms in the Bloody Shower tavern and returned to the doctor’s surgery after it had closed for business. Their plan was to grab him, drag him down to the beach at turtle river, and torture him until he confessed to everything. This proved remarkably easy: he was alone in his office, had left the back door open, and had no defenses of any kind. They grabbed him in one round, knocked him out, dragged him to the beach, and with a completely minimal amount of slapping around he revealed everything.

The doctor, they discovered, had been a member of the Justified Experiment and Research Commission (JERK) in his university days. Mostly an avenue for young firebrand atheists in engineering and the physical sciences to rail against the power of the church, it was occasionally used as a vehicle for more sinister plots by evil tricksters. It was here that the doctor met a “famous phsyician” from the Shadowlands, who he now knows only as “F,” under whose thrall he slowly fell. All of his actions have been part of some plan of F’s, originally presented to the doctor as a plan to increase the influence of physicians in the Steamlands, but now apparently becoming something much more sinister. The first stage of F’s plan was the delivery of the ghoulpox treatments, and the revelation that the ghoulpox was ravaging the area to the west of town. As refugees came into the town they brought the pox with them, but this pox was immune to the efforts of the healers; at this point the doctor began treating them. He allowed von Jungfreud’s husband to die, and then suggested to her that she send the priest of Sigmar and all the dwarves in  the town out to “cleanse the blight.” They never returned, probably ambushed and slaughtered (the doctor doesn’t know). He then, again on F’s advice, convinced von Jungfreud to cast out the healers. Aware that witch hunters would be sent to Separation City if the healers reached Heavenbalm, and not blind to the risks as von Jungfreud was, the doctor undertook to have the healers murdered on the road, and gave the bandits two goblin bodies he had planned to dissect for use as false clues as to the perpetrators. He expects the messenger from F to come any day now, with the final part of F’s plan. Realizing that it will be very nasty, the doctor has begun to realize that he has been used by a dark power, and is in way too deep in a scheme of great evil. He wants to escape it, and was eager to help the PCs if they can find any way to keep him alive.

The PCs offered to help him escape town if he would convince von Jungfreud to recall the healers, and also help them deal with the messenger. He agreed, and they went straight to von Jungfreud’s house. Confronted by the doctor’s confession and still suggestible from his medicines, she agreed to help him flee and to recall the healers. Having achieved this goal, the PCs retired to sleep, and wait for the arrival of the cavalcade.

The circus comes to town

Sure enough, the cavalcade arrived the following morning, with three large caravans rolling out of the hills into the open scrub in front of the main gates to Iron Ring. Four performers capered beside the wagons, leaping and frolicking, while two of the wagons were driven by a large, powerful looking couple whose pale skin and red hair suggested they hailed from the Shadowlands. The four performers approached the gate and asked permission to troop through town that afternoon, advertising their performance. The gate guards agreed, and the cavalcade was set for 1pm. The PCs, meanwhile, decided that the doctor should not visit the camp at midday as ordered, but should speak to the members of the cavalcade and arrange for his contact to visit him in the healers’ hospice that evening – where the PCs could set an ambush.

As the cavalcade passed through the town, the initiate managed to a glimpse of the mark of Nurgle, a pustulent emblem that grows on the bodies of those devoted to the chaos god of disease and corruption, Nurgle. The cavalcade were servants of darkness, indeed, and had to be stopped! Once the cavalcade had trooped through town, while the doctor was talking to the members to arrange the new meeting point, one of them slipped away in the crowd and headed towards the hot spring at the centre of town, carrying what was clearly a bag of pus. Suspecting an intent to spread disease, the characters sent the elf to intervene: she used an act of skullduggery to bump the girl carrying the bag, and replace it with a bag of rotten mangoes in the confusion. This worked, and so they were able to stop the town being given a second disease epidemic. The mangoes were cast into the onsen, and when the elf dragged them out later they proved to be quite delicious from the parboiling they had received. In the evening they would ambush the contact and find out if that was the entirety of F’s plan – they suspected it wasn’t.

The plagubearers

In the evening they laid their trap. The doctor waited in the main room of the healers’ hospice, and the elf Laren hid in a storage closet close enough to hear all that was said. The remainder of the party waited outside, hidden in the darkness. Soon they saw who F had dispatched to meet the doctor:

  • A tall, thin man wearing tattered, broken armour and rotten clothes, carrying a sword. He was obviously riddled with disease, but also obviously reeked of demonic magical power
  • The two Shadowlanders, armed with hammer and sword
  • A great, fat horrifically disfigured humanoid, perhaps 2.5 m in height, dressed in rags and hobbling along on one twisted and ruined leg. His belly was cut with deep slashes from which guts and pus oozed, and his body was covered in sores and pustules. His face was a mess of snot, blood and decay, and behind him trailed a miasma of stench. This was a class, old-fashioned plaguebearer of Nurgle, dragging himself through the night in all his inglorious horror
  • Three cat-sized disease imps, misshapen devil figures commonly referred to as nurglings, that chuckled along behind their sorcerous master

This misshapen crew of festering evil slouched its way into the healers’ hospice, clearly relishing the chance to defile somewhere so pure and simple. Once they had all shuffled, chittered and oozed their way inside, the sorcerer spoke to the doctor. Outside, the party ghosted in towards the door, ready to spring a trap as lethal as they could think of.

In a voice that hissed and sighed with sickness and ruin, the thin man said to the doctor, “You were told to come at midday. You did not. This has inconvenienced us, and it angers me. But no matter, you have arranged to meet me exactly where I wanted you. Now we can enact the last stage of our plan – which begins with killing you.”

The next couple of seconds were filled with the doctor’s gasps, gurgles and final whispered pleadings as the plaguebearer smothered and destroyed him. Fortunately, none of the PCs were there to see it, and by the time they could burst into the room the doctor was already done for. Unfortunately, the dwarf had failed to move quietly enough, and the thin man was ready. He cast a spell as our heroes burst into the room, drawing about himself a swirling cloud of dark and diseased power as a cloak of protection.

Laren fired an arrow from the darkness that penetrated this cloak; the initiate succesfully hit with his mace, and Sangar conjured thorns all through the sorcerer’s body that harmed him viciously. Unfortunately, the sorcerer was protected by the mark of Nurgle, and though the elf could not be seen from her hiding place, nonetheless she was struck with a horrible disease. The dwarf slammed straight into the plaguebearer, dealing a vicious wound with his sword, though not so vicious that the plaguebearer was not able to strike back …

… and at this point the session ended for the night. In six weeks we will rejoin our heroes as they do battle against the servants of Nurgle. Will they come out of the battle alive and free of the pox? Fortunately, the healers will return in a day’s time … if anyone is left alive to benefit from their services …

fn1: she rolled a chaos star on a failed observation check.

fn2: originally I was going to have her just dig around in the skull, thus incurring a disease risk, but she proposed this part of the elf’s past, and for her creative interpretation of her character’s history I decided to let her escape the disease check

fn3: he also rolled a chaos star on a successful observation check specifically targeting the books.

fn4: two chaos stars on an unsuccessful magical sight check

The Guardian has a short video featuring three British actors reading war poems. The first and last is Sean Bean reading Wilfred Owen’s Anthem for Doomed Youth and The Last Laugh. Wilfred Owen is one of my favourite poets but I’ve never heard him read professionally before. It’s quite moving, though I’m not sure what I think of the idea of actors reading war poems on remembrance day – the slickness and glamour of it is a bit offputting. Nonetheless, if you’re a fan of Boromir or just want to hear some sad poetry read by professionals, it’s worth a look.

At dinner tonight with a couple of Japanese friends, I heard a horror story about student part-time work in the 60s: corpse-grinding.

It’s very common for students in Japan to work part time while they study, and this has been common since the war. Such work is referred to as an arubaito, from the German arbeit, one of Japan’s cuter language imports, and it’s a common assumption that students have this work. In the modern era the arubaito is usually in a restaurant, bar or hostess club, basically anywhere with flexible hours that can be fitted to a student job. But back in the day, you didn’t leave your job smelling of just cooking oil …

My friend’s dad told her that back in the ’60s or ’70s, when he was doing his arubaito, corpses that were preserved for autopsies were not put in a freezer, but were steeped overnight (for a few days?) in a vat filled with some kind of embalming fluid. His arubaito consisted of standing around a large pool with a few other guys, carrying a big stick. His job was to make sure the corpses stayed roughly submerged in the fluid. Occasionally, when he was pushing a corpse down, it would roll out from under his stick and flop to the surface, dead eyes staring at him…

But he once did an even worse job. Back in the day, medical textbooks included pictures of broken arms, but because of the complex nature of medical photography back in the day these arms weren’t the arms of injury victims. Rather, they were the arms of a corpse. And someone had to break them. Apparently the process involved a slow and careful kind of wrenching, not a sudden ping or anything, and it paid well: my friend reported that he was paid 60,000 yen to break a corpse’s arm. I don’t know if that was 60,000 yen in today’s money or back then, but either way it’s a lot of money – $600 at least for a few minutes’ work. But he could only do it once, because breaking a dead person’s arm is not a very pleasant job.

I guess now the doctor just takes out a digital camera and snaps a patient’s arm, maybe pays them $10 (probably not). But back when cameras were not routinely available, and camera skills were weaker, and point and click cameras could not take a photo of sufficient quality for a book, I guess these thing couldn’t happen. So a small and elite number of men worked their way through university through a combination of corpse-drowning, and breaking the odd zombific arm.

I remember once seeing an Oprah Winfrey episode about a man who paid his way through uni by being a sperm donor. I think I’d rather do that!

… on a thread about censorship on warmist blogs. Ironic? After my brief excursion into the denialosphere, that ended with my rapid banning from Watt’s Up With That, you’d think I’d have known better, but there’s a juicy new scandal doing the rounds about a paper by a certain professor Stephan Lewandowsky that shows that skeptics are more likely to believe crazy nutjob conspiracy theories than warmists. Steve Mcintyre at Climate Audit has been running a particularly aggressive one man show against this paper, and most of his and Watts’s posts about it have been based on elaborate conspiracy theories about faked data. Oh, the humanity! But Mcintyre’s posts have been so disingenuous that I have felt a burning desire to comment, and so I did. My first comment got through, on the thread in which he (erroneously) claims to have proof that Lewandowsky’s data is fake. So did my second comment, on the same thread: Mcintyre replies to both. Well and good. However, after that things went pear-shaped.

Mcintyre has put up a new post about censorship at Lewandowsky’s blog, in which – because he’s all class – he originally accused Lewandowsky of a “pogrom” against one commenter. After debating whether or not this choice of language was tasteless, and suggesting that warmists who call skeptics denialists shouldn’t complain about a skeptic calling deletion of a skeptic’s comments on the internet a “pogrom,” Mcintyre finally got his shit together and changed the post to sound a little less … crap. The main thrust of the post is that a single commenter, Thomas Fuller, has had all his comments deleted from Lewandowsky’s blog.

Censorship! On the internet! Those bastards! How will the opponents of Lewandowsky’s work ever get their message across?

Indeed … So on September 15th at 10:19pm I commented with the following nugget of highly condensed wit:

cute! WUWT regularly deletes comments during moderation without any announcement, and one of its commenters is probably a sock-puppet for a moderator. Where is your thread of outrage on censorship in the skeptic blogosphere?

and right now, on September 18th at 10:05 pm, my comment is still stuck in moderation. This is cute because since then, Mcintyre found time to fish another of my comments out of moderation and reply to it, to write a whole new post on his attempts to replicate the Lewandowsky results, and no doubt to approve other comments. I’m pretty sure he’s been commenting madly at a WUWT “census” thread, too.

It’s also cute because of some of the complaints in his own censorship thread. For example, consider this one from Les Johnson on Sep 15th, about alleged censorship on a warmist site:

He simply left my responses in moderation, which I could see as being in moderation. Eventually, I was able to post by being tricky with the references. He put some of those back into moderation after they were public for a day.

Wow, look at the way those warmists censor debate! They even leave you in moderation

At the same time, a comment of mine on the fake results thread also remains in moderation, presumably because it questions Mcintyre’s ability to perform the required statistical analysis. So currently I have two comments in moderation for at least two days, one of them on a post directly concerned with censorship of skeptics, that contains a comment directly complaining about being held in moderation.

Hypocrisy, thy name is Mcintyre.

In case you think this might be just some oversight – maybe Mcintyre is too busy slinging accusations of censorship and fraud at his political enemies to check his moderation queue? – I think it’s worth considering his earliest responses to the Lewandowsky paper for evidence of mendacity. In this post, he quotes the email he received advertising the survey, in which the research assistant (Hanich) states

When we published the surveys, we had two options:

a) Use the provision offered by the hosting company to block repeated replies using IP addresses. This, however, will block legitimate use of the same computer, such as in our laboratory, where numerous participants use the same PCs.

Mcintyre’s response?

And why would he be trying to accommodate respondents from their own laboratory? What business do they have filling out the survey in the first place? I wonder how many responses came from his own university? And how many of the fake responses?

It’s thoroughly obvious that Hanich is giving an example in his email, and not actually suggesting that members of the laboratory have been offered the survey, encouraged to take it, or directed to give fake responses. The only way that one can interpret Hanich’s phrasing as evidence of gaming a survey is by being deliberately, wantonly mendacious. This is vicious behavior by Mcintyre, though it’s worth noting that for Mcintyre this was (to quote a famous supervillain) “just Tuesday”: when he originally read of the publication of this paper, he loudly proclaimed he had never been contacted about the survey, and completely forgot this email that now so excites his outrage. Everything he has written in connection with this paper has been mean-spirited and deliberately deceptive.

I guess in time this controversy, like all the others, will fade away: the ice will melt, the planet will warm, and these internet thugs will be shown up for the idiots and liars that they really are. But in the meantime, I know that a lot of people read these sites and think that they represent honest debate: when they read WUWT they don’t realize that people who disagree with Tony’s “science” are censored, or that commenter smokey is a sock-puppet for moderator dbs; when they read a thread on censorship or fake results at Climate Audit they naturally don’t realize that these threads are being carefully policed to screen out conflicting opinions. So they get the wrong impression of the honesty and sincerity of these voices in the climate debate. These sites are not run by inquiring minds: they are liars. Their aim is to deceive, to manipulate the scientific record to support their own dodgy aims, and to intimidate their political opponents. Their goal is to deceive, not to educate, but people who don’t understand the details of statistics will not be able to tell the lies from the half-truths unless they are shown, which is why these sites carefully prune out anyone who can dispute their misrepresentations. Thus does Mcintyre get a reputation as an “expert in statistics,” and Tony Watts gets to be seen as an authority on climate science even though he never even got an undergraduate degree in atmospheric physics. They are liars, and they are lying about an issue of fundamental importance to the future of the planet.

In my book, that makes them scumbags, too.

Update: after I posted this I toddled over to Stephan Lewandowsky’s website and put up a comment noting I’d been censored at CA – I wanted some of Mcintyre’s readers (who were all over Lewandowsky’s website) to see it and get some sense of the veracity of their auditor. After a little time one of the CA auditors read it and replied, blaming censorship on the spam queue. Some time later, one of my two comments got unmoderated, and later still the other did. So, witness the benefits of complaint! Of course my comments had now been freed up on a thread that had stopped receiving visitors. Now that they’re on notice of accusations of censorship, the moderators there are behaving more carefully, though I notice that some of my comments get stuck in moderation a long time, while others get through quickly – often with a comment from Mcintyre. It’s a very effective way of controlling debate, and one I’m not familiar with from most blogs I frequent. For example, some comments I made last night have been freed up and replied to, but this one is still in moderation in the same thread:

RomanM, no one’s trying to marginalize you: they’re trying to understand how ordinary people interpret scientific debate, in order to better understand scientific communication in the future.

Unfortunately, traffic from there has now been directed here, and Mcintyre and his mate RomanM are starting to play games with my identity: a kind of subtle threat very popular on skeptic blogs. I can take a hint, so I’m not going to go back there. For newcomers here, I remind you of the Faustusnotes Privacy Policy.

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